JEFFREY FRANKEL ON AMERICAN ECONOMIC POLICY 

Recession Watch, 2008

Articles on Domestic American Political Economy                  

"Atheists in Foxholes; Libertarians in Financial Crises", July 2008.

"Responding to Crises," for 24^th Annual Monetary Conference, Cato Institute; slides.  In Cato Journal 27, no.2, Spring/Summer 2007, pp.165-178. KSG RWP07-010.    

What Can an Economic Adviser Do When He Disagrees with the President?", Challenge, 46, no. 3, May/June 2003, pp.1-24. 

Republican and Democratic Presidents Have Switched Economic Policies,”   Milken Institute Review. vol. 5, no.1, 1st Quarter, 2003, pp.18-25.
[Lawyer John Dean apparently agrees, Feb. 28, 2008.]

Op-eds & Speeches on Developments in American Economic Policymaking 2001-07   

[Quote on Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, Toronto Star, Oct. 6, 2007.]

 “Thinking about Risks Ahead of Time,”   1-page comment for FT.com Forum, on Martin Wolf 's column, “Risks and Rewards of the World Economy’s Golden Era,”  Financial Times,  May 2, 2007.

  “Is the Debt Important?” slides, New England Republican Council Issues Conference, Boston, April 2007.

 "Looking forward in policy-making, versus looking back," 1-page comment for FT.com Forum, on  Larry Summers column    "As America falters, policymakers must look ahead,”  in the Financial Times, March 26, 2007.

“What Do Economists Mean by Globalization?  Implications for Inflation and Monetary Policy,”  Oct.4 draft; for Academic Consultants Meeting, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Sept. 28, 2006.     Slides with graphs.   To be published in Economic Integration - Global Experience, The Icfai (Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India) University: Hyderbad; expected date: October 2007.

"The Economic Outlook and the Twin Deficits," Boston Economic Club, May 24, 2006.    Earlier versions were presented at The Columbus Group, Harvard University, Feb.; an Ambrosetti meeting, Villa d’Este, Italy, March; and the Economic Advisory Panel Meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, April;  and the Real Estate Academic Initiative, at Harvard University, April 19, 2006.

“How disruptive would $80-$100 oil be to the US and global economies?” April 2006, question for The International Economy.

"As a Budget Storm Gathers, Bush Ignores Fiscal Forecasts,"  in The Forward, Sept. 16-22, 2005.   Translated into Japanese in SAPIO magazine, Oct. 12, 2005, Tokyo.

"What Can An Economic Adviser Do When the President Adopts Bad Economic Policies?"  The Pierson Lecture, Swarthmore College, Apr. 2005.  .  Incl. tribute to Bernie Saffran.

"The Wrong Approach," Jeffrey Frankel and Jessica Stern, The Baltimore Sun, Oct. 29, 2004. Pg. 17A.

"A Debate on the Deficit," Challenge, Nov. 2004, pp. 12-45.  Reprinted as Chapter 13, The Political Economy of the Deficit, in The Means to Prosperity: Fiscal Policy Reconsidered, edited by Per Gunnar Berglund and Matias Vernengo (Routledge, NY), 2006, pp.255-286.

"Ten Defenses for Irresponsible Tax Cuts, and Why They are Wrong," panel on The Budget Deficit and the American Economy: How Much Does the Deficit Matter? What Should Be Done? with Richard Darman, Glenn Hubbard, and Alice Rivlin, Kennedy School of Government, April 30, 2004.

"It's a Tough Job to Create Jobs," Washington Post Outlook, Sunday, April 11, 2004.

[Interview Clip on Taxes and the 2004 Presidential Election.]

"The Jobless Recovery," The Forward, December 19, 2003 (downloadable).  - Final Published (.html) version

“Lessons from Recent US Economic Policy,”   from  Economics for An Imperfect World, presented at Joe Stiglitz’s 60th Birthday, Columbia Univ., Oct. 2003.

A Link Between Bush Tax Policy and Recession?, Oct. 9, 2003

"What is the White House Trying to Do?" The Forward, June 27, 2003.

[Interview re: June 6 release of figures for highest unemployment rate in 9 years]

When An Economic Adviser Disagrees with the President, Financial Times, March 31, 2003 (.pdf)

"Lessons from US Economic Policy in the 1990s," speech at ICRIER, New Delhi, India, Jan. 15, 2003

 "Trading Places", Financial Times, September 13, 2002.

"Implications of the 9/11 Attacks: Historical Precedents," presented at Academic Advisory Council, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 9/21/01; and BCSIA Board of Directors, Harvard 10/9/01.

Developments in American International Economic Policy     

"The Twin Deficits Are Back!"  Fidelity Investments, May 5, 2008.   Slides.

Comment on “How Long Can the Unsustainable US Deficit Be Sustained?” by C. Bertaut, S.Kamin & C.Thomas, Conference on Global Economy in Balance, U.Wisconsin, May 2, 2008.

NEW  “Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar?” (with Menzie Chinn),  International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), 11, no. 1, 49-73.  Revised version of “The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency."    Page proofs.     RWP08-016, HKSG, and  NBER WP 13909,  April 2008, .

NEW  “Getting Carried Away:  How the Carry Trade and Its Potential Unwinding Can Explain Movements in International Financial Markets,”  Nov. 2007.  Version edited (no footnotes or references) for the Milken Institute Review, 1st Quarter, 2008 .

“Nine Reasons We Are Given Not to Worry About the US Deficits,”  Commission on Growth and Development workshop on  Global  Trends and Challenges, Yale University, September 2007; chaired by Michael Spence.  Revised January 2008.

“Nine Reasons You Have Heard Why We Are Not Supposed to Worry About the US Deficits,” Powerpt slides, World Economic Outlook Conference, Global Insight, Boston, Oct. 30, 2007.   

["Debtor Nation" J. Shaw, Harvard Magazine    July/Aug. 2007, pp. 40-48, with JF quotes.]

["Falling Dollar," Martin Wolf's Financial Times column, and JF comments thereon, Economists' Forum, FT.com, Dec. 6, 2006.]

 “Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates: An Equilibrium Model vs.a Disequilibrium Reality," rev. Dec. 2006   Comments in response to the paper (AER 2008) by R. Caballero , E. Farhi & P. Gourinchas, BIS Working Paper 222, December 2006, BIS Annual Research Conference, Brunnen, Switzerland, June 19-20, 2006 .  KSG  RWP06-035.   Abstract,       

[JF quote in "Two Deficits, Fed Turnover ," The New York Times, International, Feb. 2, 2006]

"Could the Twin Deficits Jeopardize US Hegemony?"  in Twin Deficits, Growth and Stability of the US Economy, Special Issue of Journal of Policy Modeling, edited by Dominick Salvatore, vol. 28, no.6, Sept. 2006, pp. 653-663.  

What's Ahead:  Decade of the Dollar, the Euro, or the RMB?" Eurobank, Athens, Greece,  June 21, 2005.

"The Dollar and the Deficit: Is a Crisis Looming?"  Spring Conference, KSG, Harvard University, May 14, 2005.   slides

“Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?” (with Menzie Chinn), Newport, RI, June 1-2, 2005.    NBER Working Paper 11510.    In G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, edited by Richard Clarida (University of Chicago Press: Chicago), 2007.

"Back to The Twin Deficits," Notes presented at Bellagio Group, Amsterdam, Jan. 20-21, 2005.   Written up for The Analyst, Harvard Investment Quarterly, May 7, 2005.

"Twin Deficits and Twin Decades,"   presented at a conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, at Wequassett, June 2004.   In  The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy (MIT Press: Cambridge MA), edited by Richard Kopcke, Geoffrey Tootell and Robert Triest, 2006, pp. 321-335.

"The Flubbed Opportunity for the US to Exercise Global Economic Leadership".  Published as "Bush's Spectacular Failure" [not my choice of title!] in The International Economy, XVIII, no. 2, Spring 2004.

"Economic Advantages of America," delivered at Schloss Schönbrunn,Vienna, Austria, 16 May, 2001; and Dublin Castle, Dublin, Ireland, 7 June, 2001

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