CURRENT PUBLICATIONS or SPEECHES

On Economic Development    

“Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?,”with Implications for Dutch Disease and Currency Unions  slides, presented at panel on “Macroeconomic Impacts of Migration and Remittances,” at conference on Immigration and Global Development: Research Lessons on How Immigration and Remittances Affect Prosperity Around the World, May 26, 2009, Center for Global Development, Washington DC..

"Mauritius: African success story," initial thoughts,  NBER's Africa Project.   slides, Feb. 2009.

[“Lessons from India and China,”  1-page comment for the FT.Forum on Martin Wolf column, “In the brave new world, Chindia’s uneven rise continues,” Financial Times, March 20, 2007.]

"South Africa: Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success"  (with B.Smit & F.Sturzenegger), KSG RWP07-021 April 2007.     Economics of  Transition  16, no. 4, 2008, 639-677 (Blackwell).    From Project on South Africa: Performance and Prospects, Center for International Development, Harvard University,  Jan. 2008.

Other Frankel papers/presentations on South Africa.

Jeffrey Frankel and Amartya Sen debate in the Forum "Is the Language of Rights Useful in the Fight Against Poverty?"

["What do developing countries take away from the September meetings in Dubai (IMF/World Bank) & Cancun (WTO)?" Latin America Advisor, Sept. 2003.]

Comments on Bosworth and Collins, “The Empirics of Growth: An Update”  Brookings Panel on Economic Activity Vol. 2, 2003, pp. 189-199.

[Interview on "Economic Development and Lessons from the Recent Experience of the US Economy," Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, World Bank. 2003.]

"Promoting Better National Institutions: The Role of the IMF,"   KSG RWP03-010.  IMF Staff Papers, 50, 2003.
[Video of the four speakers: Guillermo Ortiz, Jeffrey Sachs, Frankel, and Nancy Birdsall.]

On Emerging Markets     

“Getting Carried Away:  How the Carry Trade and Its Potential Unwinding Can Explain Movements in International Financial Markets,”  Nov. 2007.  Version edited (no footnotes or references) for the Milken Institute Review, 1st Quarter, 2008 .

"Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Commodity Based Economy" (with B. Smit & F.Sturzenegger),  Economics of  Transition 16, no. 4, 2008, 679-713 (Blackwell).      CID South Africa Project, South Africa Growth Initiative,  Center for International Development.   

"Does Openness to Trade Make Countries Less Vulnerable to Sudden Stops? Using Gravity to Establish Causality" (with Eduardo Cavallo), Journal of International Money and Finance 27, Issue 8, December 2008, 1430-1452.  NBER WP No. 10957.  

 KSG RWP 04-038.  NBER WP No. 10957.   Revised July 2007.

"The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies," Sept. 1, 2006, (with Jumana Poonawala)  NBER WP No. 12496, August 2006;  revised from Sept. 2004, version with full appendices.

"Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?" (with David Parsley and Shang-Jin Wei),  KSG RWP05-016   NBER WP no. 11199, March 2005.

“Managing Macroeconomic Crises: Policy Lessons” (with Shang-Jin Wei). Chapter 7 in Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner’s Guide,  edited by Joshua Aizenman and Brian Pinto (Cambridge University Press), 2005.   Video of presentation 2/27/04, World Bank.  NBER WP no. 10907.    Tables & Figures. 

"The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises," (with Nouriel Roubini) [Summary], NBER WP 8634.  In Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, edited by Martin Feldstein, 2003.

[Brazil contagion, The Connection radio show, August 7, 2002]

"Ten Lessons Learned from the Korean Crisis", NBER, Feb. 2000, Cambridge, MA.

"On Reports that Someone in Washington Has Mislaid Russia," The Future of Russia, Dec.1999, Harvard University.   Published as "Who Lost Russia?" in newspapers of Project Syndicate, Nov. 2000.

"The Balance Between Adjustment and Financing," in Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary System, edited by P. Kenen and A. Swoboda, International Monetary Fund, 2002.

"International Lender of Last Resort," from Rethinking the International Monetary System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1999.

"The New Financial Architecture: Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Integration," Policy Brief no. 51, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, June 1999.

"Soros' Split Personality," Foreign Affairs, 78, no. 2, 1999, 124-130.

On Exchange Rate Regimes            

“On Global Currencies,” Keynote speech for workshop on Exchange Rates: The Global Perspective,  sponsored by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, Frankfurt, June 19, 2009.  Powerpoint.

“Exchange Rate Regimes: Some New Themes,” lecture slides,   IMF Institute, May 28, 2009.

“Exchange Rate Regimes: Issues in Research and Policy,” lecture slides,   IMF Institute, May 25, 2007.

"Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes:  Synthesis of  The Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights,"  Condensed for publication, May 2008;  IMF Staff Papers 2008, vol.55.   Replication files.    slides.   Complete version with all appendix tables: NBER WP No. 14016, May 2008, March 2008.  Or, with selection of appendix tables: Harvard KS RWP08-026, May 2008.   Replication files.   
Slides incl. update of China and other weekly-frequency estimates, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 2009.   Slides, U.Mass.Amherst, May 2009.
  For China                               

NEW  Blogpost: The RMB Has Now Moved Back to the Dollar -- Estimates updated through February 2009 show that the basket implicitly underlying the Chinese currency has abandoned the substantial weight that it had placed on the euro in 2007, and for the last six months has been back to full weight on the dollar. Tables.  ["China Resumes Dollar Pegging On The Sly," Forbes.com, March 27, 2009.]

NEW  “New Estimation of China’s Exchange Rate Regime,” Dec. 2008.     Proofs, June 2009.  Forthcoming, 2009, in Pacific Economic Review  (Wiley InterScience, Blackwell Publ.).    New Estimation of the RMB Regime (incl. appendix tables) in China’s Emerging Financial Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, J.Tatom, G.Yago, and J. Barth, eds. (Springer).    RWP08-077, Harvard University.     NBER WP no. 14700, February 2009.

"The RMB: China's Exchange Rate Policy," Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations," April 4, 2008.  slides.

 “Comments on Cline and Williamson’s ‘Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Renminbi?’,”   in Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy, edited by M. Goldstein and N. Lardy, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, 2008, 155-165.   From 2007 conference.

“Comment on ‘China’s Current Account and Exchange Rate,’ by Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Eiji Fuji,” in China’s Growing Role in World Trade,   forthcoming, NBER, edited by R. Feenstra and S.J. Wei, (University of Chicago Press).

"Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime," (with Shang-Jin Wei),  Economic Policy 51, July 2007, pp. 575-614.  Panel meeting, Feb.12, 2007.  Video interview.   Vox summary.   Earlier working paper versions contain more extensive tables: CEPR DP No. 6264, April 2007, and NBER WP 13100, May 2007.    Zipped programs and datasets.

"On the Yuan: The Choice Between Adjustment Under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate,"  published 2006 by Oxford University Press  Understanding the Chinese Economy, 2005, edited by Gerhard Illing. (With abstract), CESifo Economic Studies, Munich.  KSG RWP04-037.   NBER WP 11274.

“The Balassa-Samuelson Relationship and the Renminbi,” KSG, Dec. 2006.

“On the Renminbi,”  CESifo Forum, vol 6, no. 3, Autumn 2005, p. 16-21 Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich.

[China's Announcement of de-linking from RMB to the $ -- Segment on On Point radio show July 21, 2005]

   Exchange Rates For Other Emerging Market Countries       

CID  projects, Harvard University:      
        CID South Africa Growth Initiative, including recent working papers and news. 
         Project on South Africa: Performance and Prospects,  Center for International Development : 
      "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate,"   South African Journal of Economics, 75, no.3, September 2007.
      Other Frankel papers/presentations on South Africa.
             


          "On the Tenge: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy for Kazakhstan" Consultancy for government of Kazakhstan, CID, Apr.11, 2005.  Russian translation, ADB, 2009.

"Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies,"    in Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia: The Way Ahead, edited by Asian Development Bank, 2004 (Palgrave Macmillan Press, NY), vol. 2,  91-138.  Also RWP03-011; and NBER WP no.10032 .

"Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regimes," (with Sergio L. Schmukler and Luis Servén),  NBER WP no. 8828.  Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, no. 5, Sept. 2004, 701-734.
[After Argentina: "No Right Answer?"  The Economist Global Agenda, January 21, 2002.]
"Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime,"  with Sergio Schmukler and Luis Servén;  Brookings Trade Forum 2000, edited by S. Collins and D. Rodrik; Brookings Institution, Washington DC.

"No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or at All Times," Graham Lecture, Princeton University.   Essays in International Finance No. 215, Princeton University Press.   NBER Working Paper No. 7338,  1999.
   The Euro and other Currency Unions  

NEW “The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade:  Why are They Below Historical Evidence on Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?” revised April 2009, WCFIA WP 2009-008;  forthcoming in Europe and the Euro, edited by Alberto Alesina & Francesco Giavazzi (University of Chicago Press).     NBER WP 14542, Dec. 2008. RWP08-076, Harvard Kennedy School.   Slides, NBER conference, Oct. 2008.   Slides, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 2009.

NEW Comments on “The euro: It can’t happen, It’s a bad idea, It won’t last. U.S. economists on the EMU, 1989-2002,” by Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea. Euro at 10: Reflections on American Views, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 3, 2009.

“Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for Dubrovnik Economic Conference XIV, hosted by Central Bank of Croatia.   Forthcoming in Comparative Economic Studies, edited by Joe Brada and Paul Wachtel.    RWP08-059, Harvard University. 

 “Should Central European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for  Report on Poland's Full Membership in the 3rd Stage of the Economic and Monetary Union, October 2008, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw.      

["Emu's second 10 years may be tougher than its first," Martin Wolf,  Financial Times, May 28, p. 9.]
[ "Dollar chilled by rise of euro," The Guardian Weekly, 4/4/08, p. 43.]
["This crisis could bring the euro centre-stage," Wolfgang Münchau,  Financial Times,  March 23 2008.]

NEW "The Euro Could Surpass the Dollar Within 10 Years,"  Vox, March 18, 2008.                   HKS video.

NEW  “Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar?” (with Menzie Chinn),  International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), 11, no. 1, 49-73.  Revised version of “The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency."    Page proofs.     RWP08-016, HKSG, and  NBER WP 13909,  April 2008, .

"Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?" (with Menzie Chinn).   In G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, edited by Richard Clarida (Univ.of Chicago Press, 2007).     
NBER conference, Newport, RI, June 1-2, 2005,  NBER WP 11510.    At AEI Sept.2005 .   
At Conference on Global Imbalances & Asian Financial Markets, UC Berkeley, Sept. 2005 [slides].  
Chinese translation forthcoming, International Finance, Taipei. 

[Interview on "International Currency Rankings," including video excerpt, Kennedy School Insight, May 2006.]

["Currency competition: How the dollar might lose its status as the world's main reserve currency,"   Economist, Sept. 29, 2005.]

["Euro may become top reserve currency by 2022 -- study,"  Reuters, Aug. 5, 2005.]

My comments on "The Euro's Trade Effects,"  March 2006, by Richard Baldwin . ECB WP 594, March 2006.  For What Effects is EMU Having on the Euro Area and its Member Countries?  European Central Bank, Frankfurt, June 2005. 

Comments on: "The Euro, Stabilization Policy, and the Stability and Growth Pact or Can Rubinomics work in the Eurozone?" by Adam S. Posen.  In The Euro at Five: Ready for a Global Role? edited by Adam Posen, 2005; pp. 157-169.   Conference at the Institute for International Economics.

"Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU,"   in Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries – Opportunities and Challenges  edited by Susan Schadler (IMF: Washington DC), 2005.     RWP04-039, Aug. 2004 

"The Euro Area and World Interest Rates" with Menzie Chinn.   Presented at NY Fed conference on "Financial Globalization", 2004.   Summary in conference proceedings, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.

"The UK Decision re EMU: Implications of Currency Blocs for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations," in Submissions on EMU from Leading Academics (H.M. Treasury: London), 2003, p.99-109. 

“Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations,” A background report for the Commission on The UK Outside the Euro, October 30, 2002. 

"Comments on ‘Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama’ by Goldfajn and Olivares," LACEA, Rio de Janeiro, 2000; Economia Spring 2001, vol.1, no.2.

"An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," with Andrew Rose. Quarterly Journal of Economics. May 2002. SUMMARY published in Currency Unions, edited by Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, CA, 2001.  [Our data, some relevant op-ed and newspaper coverage, and a response to a comment by Dani Rodrik, are available at Andy Rose's website.] 
The Frankel-Romer-Rose gravity-based instrumental variable for trade openness, as updated in Frankel-Rose, 2002

"On the Euro: An American Perspective," for EMU Watch Series, DB Research, Frankfurt, June 21, 2000. 

   Proposal to Peg the Export Price (PEP)     

"UAE & Other Gulf Countries Urged to Switch Currency Peg from the Dollar to a Basket That Includes Oil,"  Vox, , 9 July 2008.

“Peg the Export Price Index: A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Countries,”    Journal of Policy Modeling vol. 27, no. 4, June 2005.

Iraq’s Currency Solution? Tie the Dinar to Oil," The International Economy, Fall 2003.

A Proposal to Tie Iraq’s Currency to Oil published as "A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar," Financial Times, June 13, 2003.  

"A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters: Peg the Export Price (‘PEP’)," KSG  RWP03-003, Harvard University.  International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), vol. 6, no. 1, Spring 2003, 61-88.

"A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity"  (with Ayako Saiki), J. of Econ. Integration, Sept. 2002, vol.17, no.3, 417-48. 

On Global Environmental Issues          
 

NEW "Energy and the Environment: Policy Advice for the New Administration:   The Matrix";  AEA/AERE meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 2009.

NEW "An Elaborated Proposal for Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades,” revised,  March 2009; for the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, directed by Joe Aldy & Rob Stavins. Forthcoming, Cambridge University Press.   Policy summary.    Slides, RFF, April 23, 2009.    Slides, HKS, Apr.15, 2009.      NBER WP 14876 ,  April 2008, includes 450 ppm case.

 “How to Make Climate Change Research Relevant to Washington policymakers,” Energy Modeling Forum Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessment, Snowmass, Colorado, July 31-Aug 1, 2008, pwrpt.slides.

“Possible Impacts of Global Climate Change Policy on Mexico and other Developing Countries in Coming Years,” memo to Mexican President Felipe Calderón, Jan. 2009.   Chapter 2.2 of The Mexico Competitiveness Report 2009, released in June 2009 at a workshop in Mexico City.

“Next Steps After the Kyoto Protocol:   Formulas for Quantitative Emission Targets (summary),” Vox , June 2007.

1-page comment on Martin Wolf's column "In spite of sceptics, it is worth reducing climate change."  For FT Forum, FT.com, Feb. 7, 2007.

1-page comment on “Curbs on emissions will take a change of political climate.”   For FT Forum, FT.com, Nov. 8, 2006.

“Formulas for Quantitative Emission Targets,” Chapter 2 in   Architectures for Agreement: Addressing Global Climate Change in the Post Kyoto World, Joe Aldy and Rob Stavins, eds., Cambridge University Press, 2007, p. 32-56.     KSG RWP07-011, Feb. 2007.    [Press release, March 2007: "After Kyoto, Then What?" Kennedy School professor outlines plan to confront challenges posed by greenhouse gas emissions.]        Summary slides version, for New Directions in Regulatory Policy, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government Oct. 24, 2007.

Comments on Barrett, Nordhaus, Pizer, & Stavins, Kyoto and Beyond: Alternative Approaches to Global Warming, AEA meetings, Jan 6, 2006,  Boston.

"Designing a Regime of Emission Commitments for Developing Countries that is Cost-Effective and Equitable" (with Joseph Aldy), written for G20 Leaders and Climate Change, Council on Foreign Relations, Sept. 20-21, 2004.

"The Impact of a Revised Kyoto Protocol on Developing Countries," August 2004, written for Business and Economy, India.

"You're Getting Warmer:  The Most Feasible Path for Addressing Global Climate Change Does Run Through Kyoto," Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, 2001.  In Trade and Environment: Theory and Policy in the Context of EU Enlargement and Transition Economies, edited John Maxwell and Rafael Reuveny (Edward Elgar Publishers, Ltd., UK), 2005; pp. 37-55.

"The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol and Global Climate Change Policy," Kennedy School Forum, March 15, 2000.

"Achieving Environmental Goals at Minimum Economic Cost," Edison Electric Institute Advisory Panel on Fuel Diversity, EEI Chief Executives Conference, Palm Springs, CA, Jan. 2000.

"Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Policy Brief no. 52, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, June 1999.

“The Kyoto Agreement on Global Climate Change: The Administration Economic Analysis,” Luncheon Remarks to the NBER Conference on Tax Policy and the Economy, Hotel Washington, Oct. 20, 1998.    Appendix: Tables and Charts of Effects on Energy Prices..
 

     Trade and the Global Environment   

"Trade and the Environment," slides, Thinking Ahead on International Trade, Geneva, June 18, 2009..

NEW  "Global Environment and Trade Policy," March 2009 for the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, directed by Joe Aldy and Rob Stavins; forthcoming, Cambridge University Press.   Revised version of “Global Environmental Policy and Global Trade Policy,”   RWP08-058.  HPICA paper no.08-14, Oct. 2008.   Policy summary.     

NEW  “Addressing the Leakage/Competitiveness Issue In Climate Change Policy Proposals,” proofs May 2009; forthcoming, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, DC, 2009, edited by Lael Brainard.   2008 conference on Climate Change, Trade and Investment: Is a Collision Inevitable?.   WCFIA WP 4792, April 2009.

“Trade, Growth, and the Environment,” slides for guest lecture in Rob Stavins’ class in Environmental & Resource Economics and Policy, April 2008 , 2009.

"The Global Climate Regime and the Global Trade Regime," slides;  and "Formulas for Quantitative Emissions," Powerpoint.  Both for Harvard Projects on International Climate Agreements Research Workshop, March 13-14, 2008, and Regulatory Policy Program  Seminar, March 20, 2008. Harvard University.

"Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment?  Sorting out the Causality" with Andrew Rose, Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, no. 1, 2005.  NBER WP no. 9201  NBER digest. Condensed version, KSG RWP03-038.   [Data available (in Stata).]

"The Environment and Globalization" in Globalization: What's New edited by Michael Weinstein, Council on Foreign Relations (Columbia University Press: NY), 2005, pp. 129-169.   NBER WP no. 10090.  At Neemrana, India, Jan. 2003.  Reprinted in Economics of the Environment: Selected Readings, Fifth Edition, edited by R.Stavins (W.W.Norton: NY), 2005.

On Globalization and Trade        

"The World Trading System and Implications of External Opening"; written for a panel of Fundacio CIDOB forum, Barcelona, Spain, Sept. 24-25, 2004.  Forthcoming in The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance, edited by Narcis Serra and Joseph Stiglitz (Oxford University Press), March 2008.  CFIA Discussion Paper 04-07.

 "The Flubbed Opportunity for the US to Exercise Global Economic Leadership"; The International Economy, XVIII, no. 2, Spring 2004.

"A Review of The Wind of the Hundred Days: How Washington Mismanaged Globalization by Jagdish Bhagwati," Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2001.

"Assessing the Efficiency Gains from Further Liberalization,"  Efficiency, Equity and Legitimacy: The Multilateral Trading System at the Millennium, in honor of Raymond Vernon. Edited by R.Porter, P.Sauve, A.Subramanian, and A.Zampetti,  Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C. 2001.  [Cited in Washington Post Editorial.]

"Globalization: Why and How It Should Continue," MacArthur Transnational Economic Security Workshop, MIT, 2000.

"Globalization of the Economy,"  NBER Working Paper No 7858,  Governance in a Globalizing World, edited by Joseph Nye and John Donahue, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C., 2000.    Reprinted in International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues, Robert Art and Robert Jervis, eds., Longman, 7^th ed., 2005.

The Frankel-Romer-Rose gravity-based instrumental variable for trade openness, as updated in Frankel-Rose, 2002

On the US, Asia and the Global Monetary System      

NEW “The United States, China, and the Policy Choices,”  Conference on the Global Economy in Balance,  U. Wisconsin, Madison, May 1, 2008.  Slides.

["Have Financial Developments Made the International Monetary Fund Obsolete?" for The International Economy, March 1, 2007]

[“Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?” Sept.18, 2006, For The International Economy, Fall issue.]

["Outlook for the US Dollar" (in Korean), interview in Maeil Kyongje, Seoul, Jan. 10, 2006.]

"Push the Euro Up and the Yen Down".  Osaka, April 17, 2002.       

"To What Extent is the US Following in Japan’s Footsteps?" Forum, The International Economy, Nov. 28, 2000.

Comments on N. Yoshino and E. Sakakibara's "The Current State of the Japanese Economy and Remedies,"  Asian Economic Papers vol.1, no.2, 2002.

China-US currency issues

Recent Developments in American International Economic Policy  

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