The
Future of Migration: Irresistible Forces Meet Immovable Ideas.
(October 2003). This paper, presented as a talk at a recent
conference at Yale on globalization, examines the forces in the world
pushing for greater flows of people across borders, and the ideas,
particularly in the rich industrialized world that are blocking
those flows. Also attached is the
presentation at the conference. Boomtowns
and Ghost Countries: Geography, Agglomeration and Population
Mobility (November 2003). This paper suggests that
the combination of negative geographic shocks and forces of
agglomeration could lead to 'ghost countries' in the world. By
analogy with "ghost towns" these are countries in which
the current desired population is a small faction of its previous
peak (or current).
This picture shows the growth of population of regions (states,
provinces) within Canada, USA, and Japan and the growth of GDP per
capita in those same regions as 90th/10th percentile rectangles
(unadjusted for any correlation). Also shown is the 90/10 ratio
for non-OECD countries. Not surprisingly, when populations are
mobile these are long rectangles as difference in population growth
are larger than differences in GDP per capita. In contrast, when
labor is largely immobile then the rectangle is tall and
thin--countries differ much more in GDP per capita growth than in
mobility (population growth less rate of natural increase).
This is of course consistent with large, persistent regional specific
shocks to labor demand--when labor supply is elastic this leads to
large population changes, when labor is inelastic this leads to large
changes in wages.

The paper also shows the decline in population in regions of the USA,
county by county. The simple point is that there are large,
geographically contiguous regions of the USA that have seen absolute
declines in population over the 1930 to 1990 period. If there
have been large decline sin the "desired" population of regions
of the USA--then why not of regions of the world that are
nation-states?

I have presented some combination of these papers a number of
times--at NYU, at Harvard's
Center for Population Studies, and at the
KSGs MPA/ID program (all with
different emphasis). |