Populism and Natural Resources

 

An Energy Policy Research Project

John F. Kennedy School of Government

Harvard University

Cambridge, Massachusetts

Thursday and Friday, November 1-2, 2007

 

 

 

Thursday, November 1, 2007

Kennedy Room, Charles Pavilion, One Eliot Street

                           (adjacent to Kennedy School Taubman Building)

 

1:55 pm                      Welcoming remarks: (Introductory Chapter)

William Hogan and Federico Sturzenegger, Harvard

 

2:00-3:00 pm               “A Resource Belief-Curse: Oil and Individualism”  (Accompanying Tables)

Rafael Di Tella, Harvard Business School, Harvard University

Robert MacCulloch, Imperial College

Juan Dubra, Universidad de Montevideo

Discussant: George Marios Angeletos, MIT

 

3:00-4:00 pm               “Sovereign Theft: Theory and Evidence about Sovereign Default and Expropriation” 

Mark Wright, Department of Economics, UCLA; and

Mike Tomz, Department of Political Science, Stanford University.

Discussant: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, International Monetary Fund

 

4:00-4:15 pm               Coffee Break

 

4:15-5:15 pm               “Contracts in Natural Resources” (Accompanying Charts)  

Philippe Aghion, Department of Economics, Harvard University

Discussant: Lawrence Summers, Harvard

 

5:15-6:15 pm               “The Political Economy of Oil Contract Renegotiation in Venezuela”  

Osmel Manzano, Inter-American Development Bank, and

Francisco Monaldi, IESA, Caracas.

Discussant: Ramon Espinasa, Consultant IDB and former Chief Economist, PDVSA

                                   

7:00 pm                       Reception: Harvard Faculty Club, 20 Quincy Street

 

7:30 pm                       Speakers Dinner:  Harvard Faculty Club

Friday,  November 2, 2007                                                                                                  

Kennedy Room, Charles Pavilion, One Eliot Street

 

8:30 am                       Breakfast

 

9:00–10:00 am             “Credibility, Commitment, and Regulation”

                                       Dieter Helm, Oxford University, Oxford.

                                     Discussant: Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard

10:00-11:00 am         “Hydrocarbons Policy, Shocks and Collective Imagination :  What Went Wrong in Bolivia?”

                                    Fernando Navajas, Fundacion de Investigaciones Economicas Latinoamericana, Buenos Aires

                                    Discussant: Fernando Candia, Managing Director of EFECE (former Finance Minister and Central Bank President, Bolivia)

 

11:00-11:15 am                       Coffee Break

 

11:15 am-12:15 pm     “Urgency and Betrayal:  Three Attempts to Foster Private Investment

in the Argentinean Oil Industry”

Nicolas Gadano, CIPPEC

Discussant:  Louis Wells, Harvard Business School

 

12.15-1:00 pm                         Lunch

 

1:00-2:00 pm               “Pricing Expropriation Risk in Natural Resource Contracts – A Real Options Approach”

                                    Eduardo Schwartz, Anderson School of Management, UCLA; and

                                    Anders Trolle, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen

                                    Discussant:  Robert Pindyck, MIT

 

2:00-3:00 pm               “Optimal Resource Extraction Contracts Under Threat of Expropriation” 

Eduardo Engel, Department of Economics, Yale University; and

Ronald Fischer, Department Ingenieria Industrial,

                      Universidad de Chile, Santiago.

Discussant: Richard Zeckhauser, Nils Wernerfelt , Harvard

 

3:00-4:00 pm               “Dealing with Expropriations:  General Guidelines for Oil Production Contracts”

Roberto Rigobon, Sloan School of Business, MIT

Discussant: Erich Muehlegger, Harvard

 

4:00-4.20PM               Wrap-up: Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, Mondoil Corp.